Talent ID
Current form, demonstrated ability and the age runway to the selected championship finalist level.
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Select a dot or athlete below. The vertical boundary is projected age 31; the main horizontal boundary is two years from the standard. Dashed lines show four and six years. Positions use SB and archive best equally.
| Athlete | Event | Country | Age | SB | Archive best | Years from standard | Projected age | Index | Group |
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How Talent ID is calculated
- Shows: current form and how many years of steady improvement separate an athlete from the finalist standard.
- Does not show: a prediction, an eligibility check or a selection decision.
- Coverage: athletes with a known date of birth are plotted; the rest appear in the table only. Archive starts 2023.
The standard is the median legal full-season best of top-eight finishers in the exact event and category. Global uses Worlds/Olympics, Europe uses European Championships, and Asia uses Asian Championships/Asian Games. Reference editions are 2023–2025, only those completed by the selected season. At least six verified observations are required; unsupported event/reference combinations are omitted, never replaced with another region. Full-season SBs can occur after the championship. Small or incomplete cohorts should be treated cautiously. This is a finalist performance benchmark, not an entry standard or a guarantee of placing.
SB is the best wind-checked mark in the selected season. Archive best is the best eligible SB from the start of our archive through that season, not a verified lifetime PB. Missing seasons and missing wind readings can limit coverage. Official splits follow the rankings archive. Junior implements, Short Track and other event variants are not substituted for senior Olympic events.
Years from standard = percentage gap to the standard ÷ annual improvement percentage, with direction reversed for jumps, throws and points. SB and archive best contribute 50% each. Negative years indicate marks beyond the standard. Projected age = age + the average of the two years estimates, each floored at zero. Age uses 31 December in completed seasons and the archive cutoff in the latest season. Unknown dates of birth remain unplotted.
Performance index = 100 × (54.54974069 − average years) ÷ 64.409244822. This retains the original QAT workbook scale across every year and filter. Scores are not capped at 0 or 100. Zero years corresponds to 84.69; two years to 81.59, four to 78.48 and six to 75.38.
The default rate is a linear 0.5% per year, matching the original workbook method rather than compounded growth. The optional pathway rate is the median annual percentage change from the longest available one-to-five-year interval of legal archive SBs for each selected-reference finalist appearance, including declines. Exact-event pairs only; at least ten intervals and a positive median are required. Otherwise 0.5% is used and labelled. These successful-finalist trajectories are a scenario, not a forecast for every athlete. The chart groups are not medal predictions; Europe and Asia references restrict the athlete pool to countries in that region; Global permits worldwide comparisons.
Age 31 is a fixed planning boundary supplied for this model. At or below two years belongs to the upper groups; projected age below 31 belongs to the left groups. “Limited runway” describes this scenario, not an athlete’s absolute potential. A historical archive best retains equal weight regardless of how long ago it occurred.