Breakout Radar

• Shows: measured season-on-season change for athletes with two comparable seasons in the same event.
• Does not show: a breakout score, a probability or a support recommendation.
• Coverage: the archive starts in 2023 and the latest season is still partial, which can understate improvement.

Observed season-best change, not a predicted probability of success. Positive change means improvement: (previous - current) / previous for times, and (current - previous) / previous for distances and points. Only consecutive seasons in the same exact event and sex are compared. Missing history is not zero improvement. Athletes without a valid comparison remain in the coverage count but not the chart or watchlist.

Each dot is an athlete. Better marks lie further right; larger improvement lies higher. Marks require recorded legal wind in wind-sensitive events. Event names and implements remain separate. Indoor and outdoor results may be mixed where the archive does not distinguish the setting. Large changes can reflect source errors or incomplete seasons and require review.

Elo change compares the last available rating in each season. It is a supporting signal, not an official World Athletics ranking or directly comparable across events. New-rating initialization, opponent coverage and activity can influence it. Appearances count all recorded races/competitions, including rounds, not just wind-legal performances.

Age is age reached during the season year; athletes with unknown birth dates are excluded from age-specific filters. The archive starts in 2023, with substantially less coverage that year. The latest season is incomplete: its best mark is compared with the previous full season. This can understate current improvement. Earlier-season views exclude later results.

This first version has no combined breakout score or automatic support threshold. Pathway positioning and predictive claims require separate validation against later outcomes and broader age-matched cohorts.